Spring 2005
Making and Keeping Peace. Werner, Suzanne; Yuen, Amy. International Organization, 59:2, p261-292
Conflict is a major obstacle to economic development.What is our role as the third party in times of conflict?
In order to prevent or resolve war, the logistics and feasibility of peace in the situation must be fully understood. In this article the authors attempt to explain what needs to happen in order for peace to be a long lasting answer.In examining the characteristics of the warring groups, as well as the terms as to which the members are fighting for, a practical approach to peace can be obtained. Allowing the warring groups to come to agreeable terms that they both are willing to adhere is a key element to bringing peace. The authors warn against the attempts of third party intervention which can end up being more harmful than helpful. Long lasting peace can fully be obtained only if both sides agree that they want peace and are willing to adhere to requests of the other side.
In data collection, a Fortna and Werner design was followed, as well as a Weibull model. The Fortna and Werner design used a hazardous analysis which included a model that measured duration of peace. Fortna's index of strength agreement was extensively examined for this study as well. This index included different factors such as arms control agreements, peacekeeping forces, confidence building measures, external involvement, and provisions for a demilitarized zone that comprise a peace agreement. Other variable studied were the costs of the war, history of the conflict, and battle consistency. These factors were studied in order to see what contributes to a successful peace agreement, as well as what will cause war to continue. There was a total of 876 observations in the data set.
When attempting to bring peace between two sides, it most important to figure out what both parties want and are hoping to achieve from war. Most wars are started or prolonged out of distrust that the other side will not comply with what the one group wants. The first step to creating a long lasting peace is to create some sort of trust where both sides have reassurance that the other will keep the implemented terms. If one side feels that there are too vulnerable or susceptible to a surprise attack, they are more likely to pursue war and refuse to back out. If they feel that the opposing side is not trustworthy, they have no motivation to back out of war and risk being attacked. If there is uncertainty, a peace treaty will not succeed.Also, war may continue or begin if one side feels they can achieve a better outcome than previously established.
Third party intervention can seemingly be a quick resolution to war. However, often time third party pressure can worsen the situation by creating unsteady peace treaties. In the short term, third party intervention can help cease warring, but once this outside party leaves, the situation remains unresolved.Outside parties are usually able to persuade the groups to end war by economic incentives, which can cause groups to come to agreements they would not normally create. Once the third party is no longer involved, there is no incentive for the groups to remain at peace. The author suggests that is better for war to naturally run its course than be interrupted unnaturally. If a third party intervention does occur, it can only be helpful if the interests of the warring groups are the main focus, allowing the two groups to decide upon a settlement terms. Also, continuous aid must be present if a third party expects any sort of long lasting peace.
There are several reasons why peace can not be secured in an area of war. In this article the idea of failed third party intervention is a focal reason as to why peace does not remain steady in a certain area. Ideas about trust and obtaining certain wants are also found as factors as to why groups go to war. Enforcement can not be successful if the warring sides feel that their conditions have not been met and can not come to a satisfactory agreement. Third party intervention can only be a success if it is long lasting and is focused on the wants of the two sides. They need to understand on what terms a viable agreement can be obtained. Persuasion from third parties to ceasefire can not be done too prematurely, or war will resume in the future. It is important to focus on ending war without it being a recurring problem.If one side believes that better terms can be achieved if war is perused, then war will continue. Settlements need to be flexible, open to future change, as well as the ability to please both sides as much as possible, so that future war can be prevented.
Third party groups need to realize their position in interfering between two warring groups. Through dedication and understanding of the groups it is possible for long lasting peace to be achieved. However, often times it is better for warring groups to come to settlements without the help of a third party. An outside party can act as mediator, but direct intervention can create more problems, and even spark a renewed war. When deciding how to intervene and to what extent a third party can participate, an understanding of the history, culture, wants, and reasons of war of the two groups are essential if any progress wishes to be obtained. Creating agreements that are satisfactory to both sides as well as flexible is the only way peace will last.